Based on its 2017 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends in the world energy markets.
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Free trialAccording to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), US primary energy consumption increased by 4% in 2018 and superseded the previous record set in 2007 by 0.3%. The 2018 energy consumption increase was the largest since 2010 both in absolute and percentage terms.
The main driver was the consumption of fossil fuels such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal as it grew by 4% in 2018 and accounted for 80% of the total primary energy consumption. More specifically, natural gas consumption rose by 10% from 2017, driven by weather-related factors and by the power sector (higher demand for space heating and for air conditionning and for power generation) and offset a 4% decline in coal consumption. Coal-fired power plants continued to be replaced with gas-fired power plants: in 2018, nearly 13 GW of coal-fired power capacity were retired, while 14.6 GW of net natural gas-fired capacity were added.
Renewable energy consumption rose by 3%, spurred by new wind and solar power plant installations: wind power consumption grew by 8%, while solar electricity consumption increased by 22%. Biomass consumption (mainly biomass for transport), which accounted for 45% of all renewable energy consumption in 2018, slightly increased in 2018 (+1%), while hydropower consumption declined by 3%. Nuclear consumption also posted a moderate increase in 2018 (+1%), despite a record for nuclear power generation.
According to the Japanese government, the domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dropped by 1.2% in fiscal 2017-2018 (April 2017-March 2018) to an eight-year low. It was the fourth straight year of decline, which was mainly driven by the increased use of renewable energies and the restart of several nuclear reactors. GHG emissions totalled 1.3 GtCO2eq during the fiscal year, in line with Japan's target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fiscal 2013 levels by fiscal 2030 by 26%. The observed reduction stood at 8.4% at the end of fiscal 2017.
Japan's emissions rose significantly after the Fukushima 2011 nuclear disaster, as the country shut down all its operational reactors and subsequently increased the use of thermal power generation. However, it turned to a decline in fiscal 2014-2015 with the help of new renewable energy production and the introduction of energy-efficiency measures.
According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), US exports of crude oil neardly doubled in 2018, from 1.2 mb/d in 2017 to 2 mb/d in 2018. The primary driver behind rising exports is the increase of the domestic crude oul output (+17% in 2018) to an average of 10.9 mb/d. Most of the increase in production is related to the Gulf Coast states (7.1 mb/d, i.e. 65% of domestic production), the departure point for more than 90% of U.S. crude oil exports.
Besides, the destination of export volumes changed significantly during the year, as crude oil exports to China nosedived, while exports to other destinations such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Canada increased. In 2018, Asia was the main destination for US crude oil exports - South Korea overtook China as the second-largest destination for US crude oil exports in 2018 (respectively 236,000 bbl/d and 228,000 bbl/d) - followed by Europe and Canada (largest destiantion with 378,000 bbl/d, i.e. 19% of total exports). China was the largest single destination for US crude oil exports in the first half of 2018 but China included US crude oil on a list of goods potentially subject to higher import tariffs, and the United States exported no crude oil between August and October 2018.
According to data unveiled by the Iranian authorities, the South Pars gas complex produced 250 mbl of gas condensates in 2018, which is 5% more than in 2017. As of today, the project accounts for 67% of the country's natural gas production and for 92% of its gas condensate production. Out of the asset's 24 planned phases, 22 phases are operating and phase 14 is being completed. Phase 11 has not been developed so far, after Chinese state-run oil and gas company CNPC and French energy group Total decided not to go ahead with the project in a context of US sanctions against Iran; Iran's National Oil Company has not announced any new plans related to this phase so far.
The South Pars / North Dome gas field is the largest in the world and is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Iranian asset is divided into 24 phases: phases 1-10 are intended for domestic consumption and injection into Iranian oil fields, while gas from the other phases should be exported. Gas production will ramp up to 750 mcm/d in late 2019 and all the phases are expected to be operational by March 2020. This will be a key contribution to Iran's gas production, which is predicted to reach 880 mcm/d by 2020 and 950 mcm/d by 2021, respectively.
