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Decreasing gas imports in the EU by 2030

Sources: Enerdata, Cedigaz, European Commission
Reduction of gas consumption is a key and necessary option for EU to stop its imports from Russia by 2030. The EU will have to find alternatives or not consume the 190bcm of Russian natural and liquefied gas imports but also the roughly 30bcm drop of European production (including Norway) by 2030. Diversification of supply could account for 60bcm, especially LNG but it will be difficult to find available and affordable LNG cargoes before 2025. Biogas could reduce natural gas demand by around 30 bcm by 2030. It will remain a significant 130bcm gap that could be filled by energy efficiency and sufficiency measures.

Final energy demand levels in the EU by 2030

In Enerdata's EnerGreen scenario (Ambitious GHG emissions budget, in line with Paris Agreement goals) natural gas final demand is expected to decrease by 130bcm in 2030 vs.2019. Heat-pump roll out could account for almost 1/3 of gas consumption reduction. Together with energy sufficiency measures (decrease thermostat temperature target by a couple of degrees) and energy efficiency, buildings gas consumption reduction could reach 2/3 of total reduction observed in the EnerGreen scenario. Fuel switching and energy efficiency in industry would represent the remaining reduction.

EU Power Generation Mix Projections to 2030

Sources: Enerdata, EnerFuture, European Commission
There is no silver bullet to decrease the share of natural gas in the EU power mix. In the short term the EU will have to deal with emergency solutions:
  • Slowdown in coal phase out. Not a good news for current GHG emissions but covered by EU ETS
  • Nuclear power plants extension in Germany?
  • Limit electricity demand
In the mid-term, 2025-2030:
  • Boost renewables
  • Boost energy efficiency and sufficiency in electricity uses despite electrification
  • Expect relaxed LNG market and successful diversification of supply
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