Sharp rise in crude oil production in the USA.
In December 2018, the OPEC and Russia agreed to jointly reduce crude oil production to put a downward pressure on oil prices and limit the global glut. Under this OPEC+ agreement (as of January 2019, extended and strengthened in 2020), crude oil production declined by 4.9% in Saudi Arabia and stabilised in Russia (+0.8%), whereas Nigeria kept on raising its production (+4.8%).
International prices steadied but remained below their 2018 levels (-10% for the Brent, at US$64/bbl), as crude oil production in the USA set a new record (+11%) thanks to a boom in non-conventional output (mainly in the Permian region) and new projects coming online. This surge in US oil production widened the gap with Saudi Arabia, with the US producing 37% more oil than Saudi Arabia in 2019.
The Middle East experienced an overall decline (-6.1%), due to rising regional tensions, culminating in a drone attack in Saudi Arabia, and sanctions against Iran, where oil production fell by 34%. Similarly, oil production in Latin America dipped (-5.2%), due to political issues including the US sanctions in Venezuela (-32%) and the continuous decline in Mexico’s output (-7%), and despite a 7% growth in oil production in Brazil (surging pre-salt production).
According to the Ministry of Finance of Japan, crude oil imports decreased by 16% to 2.5 mb/d in 2020. They came mostly from the Middle East (90%). However, petroleum products imports, which were supplied by the Middle East (48%) and Asia (29%), rose by 11%. The country imported only 74.5 Mt of LNG in 2020 (-3.7%), from Asia (23%) and the Middle East (16%). Coal imports dropped by almost 7% to 174 Mt and were supplied from Asia (17%) and Russia (13%).
According to Angola’s National Oil and Gas Agency, the country’s oil production declined by 15% to 1.3 mb/d in 2020. Gas production reached 31 bcm in 2020 (85 mcm/d). Almost 5% of the natural gas production was flared in 2020. In 2020, over 61% of the total oil production came from deep water projects (20% from ultra-deep water and 17% from shallow waters). The blocks 17 and 32, operated by Total's Angolan affiliate TEPA, accounted for 46% of the country’s oil production and for nearly 23% of the gas production, while the Chevron-operated blocks 0 and 14 accounted for 19% of the total oil production and for nearly 45% of the domestic gas production.
According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), China added nearly 72 GW of wind power capacity and 48 GW of solar capacity in 2020. The growth in wind capacity additions accelerated in 2020 - from 26 GW added in 2019 - and exceeded 2019 global wind capacity additions by 12 GW. Part of this increase was linked to an earlier announcement of China ending subsidies for new onshore wind projects as of 2021. As well, solar capacity additions recovered after two years of slowdown (+44 GW in 2018 and +30 GW in 2019). Hydropower capacity increased by 13 GW in 2020. At the end of 2020, China had 282 GW of wind capacity and 253 GW of solar capacity. The country intends to increase its installed wind and solar capacity to 1,200 GW in 2030.
According to the Ministry of Energy of Indonesia, gasoline imports are expected to increase by 54% to 140 mbl, up from 91 mbl in 2020 and exceeding the pre-pandemic import level of 119 mbl in 2019. In addition, Indonesia’s gasoline sales should reach 233 mbl in 2021 (+32% compared to the 176 mbl level of 2020), while domestic gasoline production should increase by 9% from 86 mbl in 2020 to 94 mbl in 2021, close to its 2019 levels.
Indonesia is the largest importer of gasoline in Asia, and the fourth largest worldwide after the United States, Mexico and Nigeria (2019).